FEB 2025 - Economic Update [Legacy Content]

Current Signal
Feb 1, 2025
2 min read

Updated: Jan 13

SUPPLY

(Import Policy, Customs Enforcement, Supply Chain Disruptions & Shortages)

President Trump has made no secret of his dissatisfaction with how some of our most important global trading partners are responding to the fentanyl crisis, or his willingness to use the threat of tariffs in order to extract specific concessions. While it was unclear whether or not those threats were idle, on Friday, 31 January President Trump affirmed his intent to impose tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%), and China (10%) on Saturday, 01 February. While Tariffs are typically framed as a punishment intended to raise the cost of exporting goods for specific countries, in practice the costs associated with tariffs are almost always absorbed by the customers who directly purchase these items.

Listed below are the top imports of consumer goods by country*:

Canada: Oil & Petroleum (108.3B), Cars & Trucks (42.8B), Auto Parts (14.1B)

China: Cell Phones (66.7B), Computers & Accessories (53.1B), Toys Games & Sporting Goods (32.3B), Appliances & Furniture (25.5B)

Mexico: Cars & Trucks (92.9B), Auto Parts (77.6B), Computers & Accessories (30.2B), Fruits (11.3B), Household Appliances (11.0B)

*Per The Census Bureau, value listed in billions

President Trump has also reaffirmed his commitment to placing tariffs on EU goods sometime in the near future.

Both economists and industry groups have sounded the alarm about the aggressive actions taken by the Trump administration to curb immigration and deport undocumented immigrants. Should Trump's mass deportation efforts succeed there will be negative repercussions for the communities where these immigrants live, and the loss of their labor is likely to suppress production of important goods and services, raising prices for all consumers in the process.

According to the USDA, roughly 42% of farmworkers between 2020-2022 “held no work authorization”. The construction industry, which currently needs an additional 500,000 workers to meet existing demand, is also particularly vulnerable given that a 2021 report by the Center For American Progress estimated 23% of all construction laborers were undocumented. Immigrants also make significant contributions to the hospitality industry.

Economists also expect that for each net person deported, approximately 0.66 - 0.83 “native” jobs will be lost which may lead to a recession.

In addition to the concern for human health as it relates to the Bird Flu, the “culling” required to control spread of the disease is likely to impact the price and availability of certain food items including beef, chicken, pork, eggs, and dairy. The price of eggs has already made headlines for the rapid increases reported by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics in November(+8.2%) and December (+13.6%) of last year.

ACTION ITEMS:

If You’re Looking For A New Job, Consider Something “Recession Proof”
If You Planned To Purchase Any Of The Items Likely To Be Impacted By Tariffs Over The Next 6-12 Months, Consider Buying It Now.
If You’ve Deferred Home Maintenance Take Care Of It Now.
Build A Deep Pantry, But Store What You Eat, And Eat What You Store
Build An Emergency Fund That Can Cover 6 - 18 Months Worth Of Expenses

SOCIAL MEDIA SPOTLIGHT

Reddit / Fednews - “It's Now A Hostile Work Environment for entire fed government”(post recovered after deletion by moderators)